Much has been said about the number of housing stock since the beginning of the 2007 crisis, in many cases, exaggerating their value to the excess and mixed numbers without any rigor. It is clear that the housing stock increased significantly in 2008 due to the sharp drop in demand at the beginning of the financial crisis, but should clarify the concept of stock, its calculation methodology, and finally its real value not about to pour into English society (and also other Europeans), non-alarmist information reality.
The housing stock accurately measures the number of newly built houses, being completed, are still waiting for the market to sell . This means that second-hand dwellings are not counted in the total count of official stock, although it is indisputable that involve a stock accumulated significantly affect the housing market, and therefore, the property prices. In any case, the stock of second-hand housing also difficult to calculate, is extremely variable, because many homes in that category go seamlessly to be in the market to be paralyzed, or do not keep the minimum habitability requirements (in Spain there is still a very old housing stock and on many occasions in obsolescence functional), or are affected by factors like the location and the lack of need for their owners to bring them to market, resulting in the inability to calculate the number of previously owned homes that are in the market at any particular time.
By contrast, the new housing stock is calculated based on a strict procedure and has a margin of minimum error, despite what is said in some ways, determined to increase the stock but do not provide specific data collection procedures and data in their studies. The INE is the best source we have to know the stock *, since it determines the value based on the number of dwellings completed in the year of study (for the Certificate of Completion), and the accumulated stock last year it would have to subtract (and this is rarely done in the calculations free of certain media), the completed houses aimed at the self, cooperatives, owners, etc. because they are homes terms not thicken the stock to be built directly to its owner, and also subtract the number of new homes sold in the corresponding year being calculated, (official statistics of real estate transactions, specifying the number of properties changing hands due to foreclosures.)
But based on this method of calculation, there are also significant margins of error, for example, because many homes have been completed to swell the stock of new houses for rent are designed , and therefore are not really in the market for sale, and therefore it is wrong are counted in the stock. Also, many houses acquired by banks for payment in kind, are sold by them, but being second transmission, are recorded as sales of second hand and not new construction , when in fact these new work units do not go to subtract the housing stock in the above-mentioned, erroneously increasing stock. The same could be said of housing public advocacy for rental or housing exchanged land owners, who are counted as a second transmission, as in the case of payment in kind.
Según el I.N.E. , a finales de 2009 había un stock de 688.044 unidades, sin descontar el número de ellas que estuvieran en alguna de las condiciones que hemos señalado arriba. En 2010 se vendieron 222.655 viviendas de obra nueva y se terminaron unas 190.000 unidades. De modo que el stock de finales del 2010, sin excluir las viviendas para alquiler y sin sumar las ventas de viviendas adquiridas por los Bancos a promotores con las daciones en pago, ( que se han disparado desde la crisis y por tanto no son cifras nada desdeñables ), por considerarse segundas transmisiones, sería de unas escasas 650.000 unidades. Y haciendo el cálculo real en base a las consideraciones earlier, just under 600,000.
Subsequent comments will detail the distribution of the stock, because asymmetries explain why it now begins to rise the price of properties in several provinces, while continuing to decline in others especially on the Mediterranean coast and the outskirts of cities such as Madrid and Barcelona.
MBQ Group
*: t = Stock Stock VT t-1 + t, t-1 - VTNSC t, t-1 - VNV t, t-1
where:
Stock t-1 = Stock of unsold new homes in t-1
VT t, t-1 = Number of houses completed between t, t-1 (Certificates to work)
VTNSC t, t-1 = Number of houses completed between t, t-1 ...
are not likely to be sold in the market (housing
promoted by individuals, in cooperative arrangements in communities
owners, ...)
VNV t, t-1 = Number of dwellings "new" sold between t-1 t
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